Opinion: High court's immigration ruling will affect Latino vote
Editor's Note: Matt A. Barreto is an associate professor of political science and an adjunct professor of law at the University of Washington. He is co-founder of the polling and research firm Latino Decisions and author of the book "Ethnic Cues: The Role of Shared Ethnicity in Latino Political Participation."
Today, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling on Arizona’s controversial SB 1070 anti-immigration law that some observers are calling a “split decision” or even a victory for the federal government over Arizona.
Supreme Court mostly rejects Arizona immigration law; gov says 'heart' remains
Though the decision did leave open the possibility of someone challenging how law enforcement officers implement the provision that the court upheld, for the Latino community, today is not “split” or a “victory” but rather a very serious blow to civil and human rights.
For immigrants and opponents, court's ruling hits their real lives
In May 2010, after the Arizona law was signed by Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, a Latino Decisions poll found that 85% of Latino registered voters in Arizona believed that it would result in U.S. citizen Latinos being racially profiled and stopped by the police.
Today, the court has created an opening that could allow those fears to come true.
This is all happening in an election year, in which many pundits have called Latino voters a crucial bloc that could influence who wins the presidential election.
So, what are the political implications of the court’s ruling?
In a poll of Latino voters in crucial battleground states, Latino Decisions and America’s Voice found that a majority of Latinos are concerned about a growing anti-Latino environment, which was strongest in Arizona and Nevada, two states marked by anti-immigrant politics during the 2010 election. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.1% points in the overall sample, and +/- 4.9% points for each individual state.
Even though the Arizona law claims to target only undocumented immigrants, survey results show that a clear majority of U.S. citizen Latinos, who are registered to vote, are also concerned about the implications of the law.
Polling data consistently find that a large majority of Latinos strongly oppose giving state and local police the authority to check immigration status.
This month, a Latino Decisions survey with Texas A&M political science professors Joseph Ura and Francisco Pedraza found that 71% of Latinos would be opposed to the court upholding police intervention in immigration checks. A clear majority of Latino voters across the U.S. stand opposed to SB 1070. The margin of error was +/-4.4% points.
While some politicians have attempted to segregate “legal” and “illegal” immigrants in directing their hostilities towards illegal immigrants, the newest data from the Latino Decisions/America's Voice poll suggest that no such dichotomy exists in how those distinctions are heard.
When asked whether respondents personally know someone who is undocumented, 55% of Latino registered voters said yes – including 11% who said someone in their family is undocumented. Looking to the individual battleground states, we find very large percentages of Latino voters who are closely acquainted with undocumented immigrants.
In Nevada, 74% say they know an undocumented immigrant, and in Arizona, it's 68%. Beyond merely being acquainted with undocumented immigrants, 30% of Latino registered voters say they know of a person or family who has faced detention or deportation for immigration reasons. In Nevada, 41% know someone who has faced immigration proceedings.
Beyond concerns over racial profiling or creating an unfriendly atmosphere for Latinos, a very large number of Latino voters have a direct connection to people affected by Arizona’s law.
Given concerns over the court decision on SB 1070 and efforts by Democrats and Republicans to walk a tightrope on state immigration laws in places like Arizona and Alabama, a looming question is how Latinos view the two political parties in terms of reaching out or advocating on behalf of Latino issues.
Overall, we found that 50% said the Democratic Party is currently doing a good job of reaching out to Latinos, while 30% said the Democrats are generally ignoring Latinos, and 6% said they were being hostile toward Latino issues.
When evaluating the Republican Party, 15% said the GOP is doing a good job of Hispanic outreach, compared with 42% who said Republicans mostly ignore Latinos and 31% who think Republicans are hostile towards Latinos.
While the Democrats perform better than Republicans in perceptions of outreach to Hispanics, Democrats are performing well in the minds of only half of all Latino registered voters.
For Republicans, the outlook is more worrisome, with 73% of Latino voters saying the Republicans are either ignoring or being hostile towards Latinos. Given this current rating and prior Republican statements in favor of SB 1070, it will be difficult to change this perception in the short term.
Already, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has said that immigration laws in Arizona are a model for the nation and that as president, he would drop the lawsuit against Arizona. Today, he went further, saying that each state has a right and duty to secure our borders, once again tying xenophobic rhetoric of “security” to a law that allows state police to detain and question anyone in their custody they suspect is undocumented.
Polling by Latino Decisions and America’s Voice shows Romney with a serious deficit among Latinos, especially in battleground states like Arizona, where he attracts just 18% of the Latino vote, compared with 74% for President Obama.
The Supreme Court decision on SB 1070 and the continued discussion about the role that states should play in immigration enforcement are going to be part of the campaign messaging to Latino voters.
Latinos will be paying close attention to what candidates say and what their records indicate.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of Matt A. Barreto.
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Easy Solution: Use drivers license to connect to US status database. This way when you ask someone for their license, you also see their immigration status. This way everyone will have to have a ID cart (DR license, etc). EVERY citizen is expected to produce an ID upon demand. This will not discriminate, but will provide instant verification. Why are we not using the most of our technology? And we will not have to even discuss the mater with the person in question.
If there was no slavery, how would capitalism have obtained the initial capital it needed to expand the base of wealth here in this country as fast as it did during the 19th century and into the 20th century? If there was no cheap immigrant labor lin the US today how could the capitalists' profits have been as great as they were over the last several decades. The wealth of thos who have it has escalated at far greater rates than the poor and middle class and it is due to cheap labor of slaves and those who have no choice but to work for "slave wages".
yeah they were just begging to be kidnapped from there home......idiot
There was, and still is, more slavery/slaves in Africa than there ever had been in the US.
So your saying that slavery in general is a good thing Taran just because it happen in africa and here....
wow, so, sort of like the American Indians, we should round up all the whites and corral them all off to reservations. This country is so screwed
We can only make "educated guesses". It may not get any additional votes for Obama. He had already won that battle, especially with his decision last week to provide aid for certain classes of illegal immigrants. But it may keep away voters who may have been migrating toward the GOP because of the rhetoric which is arising from the backlash as a result of the GOP loss. The Court decision is a loss for the GOP because all it does is to cast and enshrine the states as "Paper Tigers" in these issues., "without teeth" and only full of "hot air".
democrats are the most cruel people I have ever heard – just read this opinion. They prefer the coyotes to increase their rates to get people accross the border including women and children who will be robbed, beaten, and raped. The criminals will then hang the women panties as a trophy...
Sick, cruel for supporting these criminals – democrat party is supporting this by increasing support for illegal immigration! This does not include the lies coyotes will tell illegals for dying of dehydration in the desert. Many deaths in the desert this year, coyotes say the cities are just a day walking distance.
Democrat believe this is okay...
Ok democrats are the "evil" ones....after saying that your party wants to send them back making their sacrifice mean nothing to get here...that makes republicans more "evil" I guess...If we use your logic...
Their "sacrifice" to break the law? Of course it means nothing. Which part of "illegal" do you not understand? Maybe the folks on the left should open their eyes and check out a dictionary.
@Taran....just because they are saying Latino's doesn't mean we are all immigrants. We shouldn't all be profiled necause or our Ethnicity! Latinos arent the o.ly one that have immigrants what about Asians and Engish...Jamaicans so on and so forth? This is a very strong and delicate issue which yoy must first do some background research amd pay attention to the real facys and not just news.
Wow . . .you really took it there? How about all of the buinesses that for years in Arizona fought hard to have cheap labor. Why do you think the law they first proposed punished the person for looking for work instead of the business for hirin the worker. The business could keep hiring illegals, and if they got caught, all the punishement was on the person for working. Arizona contributed to their problem they just realize now they can't control it.
Are you serious? what do you think is happening right now accross the border... The coyotes are increasing their rates, google mexico news and read spanish articles from the border.
Don't be an ignorant fool. Read, think, use your mind!!!
I just do not believe the Latino vote matters nearly as much as you would like. Stop propagating bs b/c you heard it on the news...
It would be helpful if you would address your opponent's arguments directy. If the arguments are factully wrong, then correct them. If you only use evasive rhetoric, I must conclude that your oppenent's arguments are correct.
good thing i live in South Florida. Romney 2012
Bob = The Intellectually challenged.
Why are white republicans so scared? I never really got that....they want less government but more government. They dont want universal health care but they want medicare. They want to cut government spending but no cutting the defense budget. They want to be protected at the border and the dont want to be protected at an airplane terminal ...what a party of hypocrites. Im so sick of the whinny right! They want everything to be like the old days.....you had your time and wasted it now its our turn!
Bob, I can read and write both Spanish and English. I have two degrees. My children all have advance degrees. My family has been in this country for over 400 years. We named most of the landscape, cities and states west of the Mississippi. I live in a state that is 43% Hispanic. Most of our elected officals are Hispanic. It is a suprise that you can write in English.
Most GOPers can't think for themselves but we let them vote.
So will Latinos forget that they were deported at 2-3 times faster rate under Obama in 3 years than Bush in 8 years? Will Latinos also forget the record high unemployment affecting the community ?
And will Latinos also forget fast and furious scandal that killed scores of mexicans?
If Latinos will vote only based on this decision, I think its a problem with media who does not highlight the real issues affecting the Latinos.
I dont know...will they? Since most republicans think they cant read or understand english......I think they know who they will vote for!
Bry, you are right on... The truth hearts the bigot and cruel democrat!!!
You forgot to add the coyotes and criminals that pray on illegal immigrants. Current policies just gave a go for the coyotes to increase their rate and criminals to pray, rob, rape, and kill directly or indirectly illegal immigrants.
Look, both parties are bad, but the GOP is worse because they pass laws that target US CITIZENS for detention if they have brown skin and/or a Spanish surname. The idea that a US citizen might be harassed and detained supersedes the horror of Fast and Furious and even the bad economy. If you don't have any civil rights, then the rest doesn't really matter. Don't take that as an endorsement of Obama. He lies and uses immigration as a wedge issue. But he's still better than the lying etch- a- sketch, Gordon Gekko that is Romney. It's a sad state of affairs because neither party will solve this problem, but rather use it for political purposes, even if it means we become a police state, having to travel with our birth certificates just to go to the mall.
@Karen.....right on point! Thanx!
You are so Republican!!
Mark,
I can't speak for others but as a legal Latino (Not an immigrant either), I'm worried about a law that encourages the Police to treat me differently just because I might speak Spanish near them or have a funny sounding last name.
So what are you afraid of? When they check on you, they will find you are fine, right? At the airport, they check everyone but only a real terrorist would be afraid right?
Its the principal of the matter......So lets carry more identification for everyone! Everyone will have to carry the SSN card, birth certificate, ids, and proof of residents. Then have the police ask every single person that they pull over to prove that they are a citizens. Just so that we are equal/fair and lets see how long that lasts....
No, they have ther right to arrest you and detain you to check your "status." That's a police state.
Arun, look up the news reports on the East Haven Connecticut fiasco, the only reason Mayor Maturo turned turtle on his "tonight I'll eat tacos" comment was because he found out that a lot of the plaintiffs against his police department were Puerto Rican and/or naturalized Dominican and he faced a very damaging civil rights violations investigation by the feds. Do you think he really cared that they were legal???
Bingo.
Also, there are instances of US citizens being wrongy deported. A Pueerto Rican man was detained and deported to Honduras! Look it up. A black teenager was deported to Colombia. Look it up!
Who would vote for cold hearted men who'd see them and their relatives thrown out of the country? Nobody, that's who. If they did, their families and friends would never speak to them again. This is the reality for republicans to face. You'll not get a single legal immigrant's vote come November if you keep trying to throw everybody out..
Naww, you are describing yourself. Brewer merely wants the law enforced. You have a problem following the law?
It is not a bill against latinos. It is a bill agianst illegal alien invaders who should be shot on site. It just so happens that the vast majority of illegal alien invaders are from the south of america. Rather than trying to improve thier own countries, they are turning america into the trash they left behind. I have no problem with legal immigrants, in fact, welcome all. My wife happens to be a legal immigrant. Which part of the word "illegal" do the folks on the left not understand?
What is your IQ a 10? Illegals should be shot on site? I hope you and your wife don't reproduce, you can't fix stupid.
Stop sounding like an "angry black man." What do countries do to illegal alien invaders? You are the one with the shoe sized IQ.
"shot on site", Taran tells us. Apparently 'Taran' didn't pass simple grammar; if s/he did, it would be spelled correctly, 'sight'.
I'll bet s/he voted for Bush & Bush also, Reagan before them.
Dan, dan, dan. "Site" as in where they are standing. I guess I should have specified what I meant as those on the left tend to make assumptions without facts. You are correct in that the use of "sight" would have fit the sentence just as well.
Right-wingers are the ones turning this country into trash. Firing teachers, police, and firefighters while the CEOs get richer and richer and richer.
You have just demonstrated your lack of the ability to think for yourself and only being able to spout the typical false liberal talking points. False as in not the whole truth, or without all the facts.
The vast majority of illegals aren't from south of america. They're actually coming in from canada as much as from mexico. Check it
I did and the larger percentage does come from south of America. According to the CBO, 1 in 4 foreigners are in this country illegally and 62 percent of them come from mexico.
Any why, exactly, should deporting illegals alienate Hispanics in general? Why are law-abiding Hispanics sympathetic to the illegals? Is race commonality more important to them than the law?
Yes it is!! Breaking the law is what most Americans do everyday. I see them go thru stop signs, cheat on their taxes,rob,steal and much worst. Americans break the law everyday.
So this makes it ok to break the law. Guess so our so-called President does
So you're going to round up 10,000,000 illegals and put them in a, what? Concentration camp?
Why not? What else do you (or any other country does) with illegal alien invaders trying to move in and take over your country?
Bry like a good conservative dolt you can't tell a chicken's head from its foot or even its tail feathers I suspect. Why won't people like you on the right fall for anything at all since everything Romney says is a contradiction of something he said earlier and you righties lap it up anyway. He's treating you just like his doggie on the car roof. Sorry, big word, look up "contradiction" if you can find a dictionary which I doubt.
Well said – and even the left wing Washington Post printed it.
Wow Bry. What an false and ignorant statement to say. Do you know that the President is leading in the polls in all the swing states where the majority of the respondents are white? You're just a bigot who is mad you can't control the fact that this President will be reelected against your bigotted heart TWICE. It must burn your soul to accept that. But it is coming. And you cant stop it.
Bry, as a white woman I can say with certainty that Obama hasn't lost the "white" vote. He has lost the white male vote...but he never had that to begin with. McCain won that demographic. Women are tired of the GOP's games with out reproductive organs, and won't stand for it anymore!
Hey, he had my vote in 2008. And most likely will again.
He definetely never had the white male vote. In reality he needs the white female and a large majority of latinos. People sometimes fail to realize the President is not elected on popular vote. He only has to win certain states, he doesn't have to win them all. That is why Republicans are putting in voting law restrictions in high minority states to supress the vote. It won't take much to lower their turnout and swing the tide.
So – the democrats support illegal immigration and want to ensure there are no controls to stop them from voting. Republicans introduce legislation to ensure only citizens of the U.S. can vote – and thus must be racists trying to steel the election. Right – Brilliant.
I'm an independent – and frankly – beyond the idiotic scare tactic politics and rhetoric coming from the left, I can't see where Republicans are interfering with women's reproductive rights. Free birth control is NOT a women's health issue; nor a right. Healthcare in general is not a right – but should be made to be more affordable. A woman should have the right to chose whether or not to continue a pregnancy – but there should be controls. So what exact 'games' is anyone playing with your reproductive rights?
That is because you fail to see the end game. You can't completely get rid of abortions, so you take some of this, and some of that. You let it get challenged where the SC will uphold and build more confidence for an all out ban. You're right that there is no right to healthcare. But while some are trying to get rid of paid contraception, I don't see them fighting to get rid of male enhancement medication. The point is not to get the government out of your bedroom, it is to stop women from having abortions, plan and simple, little by little.
Agreed. Well said.
Make that agreed with "balanced." Reggie just sounds like an "angry black man."
Obama could brain wash uninformed voters who will judge GOP because they have some standing. Obama will come to your home town and read the local newspaper for the local crowd. For many people, it may sound like a cool thing but he has got a 'D' from economists and an 'F' from all the people who believe in morals and family values. Left has branded republicans as religious rights but truly speaking you can have high morals and family values and not be a religious person or a person of different faith. If some one proclaim his or her faith from which the person derives inner strength , it is not a sign of weakness but a sign of humility unlike our President who is never wrong and it is always somebody else' fault.
@Krissy...what games are you referring to? You are reciting Democratic talking points. The "war on women" is a campaign ploy and an illusion. Where has Romney or anyone else mentioned taking away your reproductive rights?
balanced99 – you can't be that naive? You actually think Republicans are putting these laws into effect to stop illegal voting? Where is the evidence there is a problem to begin with? i agree that only citizens should vote, but why such a huge push right now with no evidence it is needed? They are scared people are voting illegally, but have no problem letting a select few wealthy people dictate an entire election. So we need to verify and identify who votes, but we need to keep secret who bank rolls the election . . . .brilliant.
Response to Bry – – -obviously you don't reazlize he never had the white vote. Less than 45% of whites who voted, voted for Obama last time. If he makes gains with Latinos, he can lose some of the white vote and it won't matter. Republicans on the other hand have no options but to get a huge turnout of the white vote as they have made it clear they could care less about getting any other groups vote. They fail to realize that the demographics are changing and just having white voters if fine locally, not nationaly.
Also I am confused when you call dems small minded. Report after report shows the least educated are generally Republican. Republicans won't fall for the truth because they don't worry themselves with facts. They just make up their own. You can't make a rational argument with an irrational person.
Well said, Reggie.
How did "supporting slavery" come into the mix? Have you ever been to a Tea Party rally, Reggie? I can assure you that there are no slavery supporting people; just hard working Americans who are very concerned about the financial cliff our country is heading toward.
I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that Abe Lincoln, a republican, was the one that freed the slaves. better check you head
Scott – I wa actually at one in DC almost 2 years ago I believe. There are extremists on both sides left and right. I am not naive enough to think there are not white or black, or brown or yellow racists. The problem that Republicans have is that they can't denounce their racists becase they have a limited supporting pool. But I do not believe at all that every tea party member is a racist. i do believe that they're not a real party and have been corrupted by the process and power.
This is like the end days of segregation. Anyone awake knows the country is going majority brown and in a few years people who supported these types of laws will be viewed the same as those who supported Jim Crow & segegation in the South.
Advice: Learn Spanish.
There is one small difference between this issue and segregation. Being in the country illegaly. The laws concerning segregation were disliked, so were changed.
No. I think the hispanics need to learn English.
Spot on! I speak spanish, but I won't respond to anyone in the US unless they are speaking english. When I go to mexico, I speak spanish as I am in their country. Why should I expect them to speak english to me when I'm visiting their country? But they come to America, they need to speak english.
So what if Obama loses the white vote. Minorities make up 1/3 of the electorate. Obama needs very little of the white vote to win. I can promise you that you Nazi rightwingers are not the majority in this country and Obama will win. My family has 9 votes are all in for Obama. We will also campaign and donate money to his campaign.
But we will take all the white votes nontheless! Well, lets hope most of them! Obama/Biden 2012!
You can fool some people some times. Now the question is whether you're part of that group of fools who wants to act ignorant and be fooled.
Why in the world would you vote for four more years of abject failure?
Obama has been a complete success!! He has all you Nazi rightwingers in an uproar.
Obama will win – no doubt. Romney can't run or differentiate Romneycare from Obamacare. Romney's destroyed jobs and companies time and time again – so much for his job creation abilities. Obama saved America's auto industry, but Romney would have let it fail and create more job losses. Romney could care less about civil rights, minorities and immigration unless it means cheap labor.
You hit the nail right on the head, Erik.
That's "couldn't" care less. If you could "care" less, then you still have some caring to do.
And your "President leading in the polls" is wrong. He isn't leading in all polls. In fact, one just came out from Virgina today where he is losing. It depends on the polls. The race is very, very close and if I'm Obama, I'm scared to death, as the real attack ads haven't even began.
agree about the couldn't – my error – never mentioned anything about polls, however
Even after destroying the economy with $6T debt, 8.2% unemployment rate, and country being divided like never before, you expect Pres Obama will be reelected. Wishful thinking. As much as I don't trust Romney either but one fact you can't ignore that he was a working governor, businessman, Olympic chief etc who got things done in a bipartisan way. When liberals can't find faults with the message, they attack the messenger.
President is acting kiddish when he was attacking Romney on outsourcing. Well, how about almost million jobs that were created because of his investment strategies. Large corporations like Staples etc are employing hundreds of thousands of people right here in US. Don't be fooled by Pres Obama's rhetoric.
Erik, FYI President Bush authorized the Bailout that saved the American automotive manufacturers, so you can't realistically credit the current POTUS with saving the US automotive industry.